As of 25 April 2026, most NZ bank economists expect 1-year fixed mortgage rates to stay between 4.49% and 4.79% through Q4 2026, with the RBNZ likely to hold the OCR at 2.25% or raise it modestly to 2.50% by year-end. By end-2027, the consensus range for 1-year fixed rates widens to 4.80%–5.50%. Only Kiwibank still sees a small chance of one final OCR cut to 2.00%, which would push 1-year rates closer to 4.30%–4.40%.
If you're wondering where New Zealand mortgage rates are heading, you're not alone. With the Reserve Bank holding the OCR at 2.25% in April 2026, borrowers are asking whether rates have bottomed out — and how quickly they might rise again. This guide brings together the latest forecasts from major bank economists so you can make informed decisions about fixing, floating, or refinancing your home loan.
Last updated: April 2026. Mortgage rates change frequently. Compare live rates on RatePal for the most current figures.
Where the OCR sits today
The RBNZ held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 review — the second consecutive hold after a series of cuts that brought the rate down from 5.50% in mid-2024. The Monetary Policy Committee noted that heightened geopolitical uncertainty, particularly in the Middle East, has clouded the inflation and growth outlook, with near-term inflation expected to sit at the top of the 1–3% target band.
This pause signals a shift in the rate cycle. After roughly 325 basis points of easing over the past two years, the RBNZ appears to be in "wait and see" mode — and most economists agree that the cutting phase is over.
OCR forecasts from major bank economists
The big question is what comes next. Here's a summary of where each major bank sees the OCR heading through 2026 and 2027:
| Bank | OCR end of 2026 | OCR end of 2027 | First hike expected | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANZ | 2.50% | 3.00%+ | H2 2026 | Mildly hawkish |
| ASB | 2.25% | 2.50–2.75% | 2027 | Dovish |
| BNZ | 2.25% | 2.50%+ | Early 2027 | Neutral |
| Westpac | 2.50% | 4.00% | December 2026 | Most hawkish |
| Kiwibank | 2.00–2.25% | 2.50% | Mid-2027 | Most dovish |
The spread between forecasts is significant. Westpac is the most aggressive, projecting the OCR could reach 4.00% by the end of 2027 with hikes at every meeting from February to September 2027. At the other end, Kiwibank still sees a possibility of one final cut if economic data disappoints — though they rate that chance at roughly 50/50.
What all economists agree on: the OCR has likely reached (or is very close to) its floor for this cycle. The debate is about when and how fast rates climb from here.
Current mortgage rates at a glance
Before looking ahead, here's where the main banks sit today on their most popular fixed terms (special/advertised rates as of April 2026):
| Bank | 6 months | 1 year | 18 months | 2 years | 3 years | 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANZ | 4.49% | 4.59% | 4.89% | 5.09% | 5.39% | 6.19% |
| ASB | 4.49% | 4.59% | 4.85% | 5.09% | 5.39% | 5.69% |
| BNZ | 4.49% | 4.59% | 4.79% | 4.89% | 5.29% | 5.79% |
| Kiwibank | 4.49% | 4.59% | — | 5.09% | 5.45% | 5.89% |
| Westpac | 4.49% | 4.59% | 4.85% | 5.19% | 5.29% | 5.59% |
| TSB | 4.59% | 4.49% | 4.99% | 5.09% | 5.29% | 5.69% |
Short-term rates (6-month and 1-year) are remarkably uniform at 4.49–4.59% across the big banks. The real differentiation appears at 2 years and beyond, where BNZ currently leads with a 2-year special at 4.89% — around 20–30 basis points below competitors.
For the full breakdown of fixed, floating and revolving rates across every NZ bank — including the Co-operative Bank's market-leading 4.99% floating rate — see our current mortgage rates NZ — April 2026 guide.
Compare all mortgage rates side by side on RatePal →
What the rate curve tells us
The shape of the yield curve — where longer fixed terms cost more than shorter ones — reveals what the market expects. Right now, 1-year rates sit around 4.59% while 5-year rates range from 5.59% to 6.19%. That steep upward slope suggests the market is pricing in meaningful rate increases over the next few years.
In practical terms, a bank offering you 5.59% fixed for five years is essentially telling you it expects the average 1-year rate over that period to be higher than 5.59%. Otherwise it would be giving away margin. This aligns with economist forecasts that see rates rising from their current lows.
What this means for your mortgage strategy
Given the consensus that rates have bottomed out, here are the key strategic considerations for borrowers:
If you're on a floating rate
Floating rates currently sit around 5.75–5.89% across major banks. That's a significant premium over 1-year fixed rates at 4.59%. Unless you plan to sell within months or need maximum flexibility, fixing at least a portion of your mortgage makes financial sense right now.
If your fixed term is expiring soon
You're re-fixing at what are likely the lowest rates you'll see for the next several years. The question is how long to fix for. Consider a split approach: fix part of your loan for 1 year to benefit from today's low short-term rates, and fix the rest for 2–3 years for certainty. Use the RatePal Mortgage Optimiser to model different scenarios.
If you're buying a first home
Today's rates are historically reasonable — well below the 7%+ peaks of 2023–2024. But don't assume they'll go lower. Budget based on rates at least 1–2% higher than current levels to ensure you can handle future increases. The mortgage calculator can help you stress-test your repayments.
Short-term vs long-term fixing
Here's how the decision breaks down depending on your view:
| Strategy | Best if you believe… | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Fix 6–12 months | Rates will stay low or fall slightly before rising | You re-fix at a higher rate next year |
| Fix 2–3 years | Rates will rise steadily and you want certainty | You miss out if rates stay low longer than expected |
| Fix 4–5 years | Rates will rise significantly and stay high | You pay a large premium if rates don't rise much |
| Split across terms | Uncertainty is high and diversifying is prudent | More complexity but more balanced risk |
Many mortgage advisers are currently recommending a split strategy — dividing your loan across 1-year and 2–3 year terms. This gives you one tranche to re-fix at potentially still-low rates next year, while locking in certainty on the rest.
Pro tip
When comparing rates across banks, don't forget to factor in cash contributions, fee waivers, and offset account options. A slightly higher rate with an offset facility can sometimes save you more in the long run. Compare the full picture on RatePal.
Key risks to the forecast
Economists' predictions are just that — predictions. Several factors could push the outlook in either direction:
Upside risks to rates (rates rise faster)
- Persistent inflation: If headline CPI stays above 2.5%, the RBNZ may hike sooner than expected. Geopolitical supply shocks (Middle East tensions, trade disruptions) could keep imported inflation elevated.
- Housing market resurgence: A sharp rebound in house prices could prompt the RBNZ to tighten financial conditions through both the OCR and macroprudential tools like LVR and DTI restrictions.
- Global rate pressure: If major central banks (the US Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia) keep their rates elevated, the NZ dollar could weaken, pushing up import costs and inflation.
Downside risks to rates (rates stay low or fall further)
- Economic weakness: If GDP growth stalls or unemployment rises more than expected, the RBNZ could deliver additional cuts — Kiwibank's scenario.
- Global recession: A significant slowdown in China or a broader trade war could drag the NZ economy down, keeping rates lower for longer.
- Disinflation: If inflation falls back toward 1–1.5%, the RBNZ would have room to hold — or even ease further.
How to stay ahead of rate changes
Rather than trying to predict the exact path of rates, focus on what you can control:
- Review your structure regularly: Don't set and forget. Each time a fixed term expires, reassess your strategy based on the latest forecasts and your personal situation.
- Build a buffer: Make sure you can handle repayments if rates rise 1–2% above current levels. This is prudent regardless of what economists predict.
- Compare across banks: Loyalty doesn't pay in the mortgage market. Even 0.10% can save thousands over the life of a loan. Use RatePal's live comparison to spot the best deals.
- Consider your total cost: Look beyond the headline rate. Cash contributions, application fees, legal costs, and break fees all affect your true cost of borrowing.
Frequently asked questions
Will NZ mortgage rates go down in 2026?
Most economists believe mortgage rates have already reached or are very close to their floor for this cycle. With the OCR on hold at 2.25% and short-term fixed rates around 4.49–4.59%, further significant drops are unlikely. However, Kiwibank sees a small chance of one final OCR cut if economic data weakens considerably. For up-to-date rates, check RatePal's live comparison.
What will mortgage rates be in 2027?
Forecasts vary widely. ANZ expects 1-year mortgage rates around 5.2–5.5% by late 2027, while Westpac's more aggressive forecast implies rates could be even higher if the OCR reaches 4.00%. On the dovish end, ASB and BNZ expect only modest increases. The consensus range for 1-year fixed rates in 2027 is roughly 4.80–5.50%.
Should I fix my mortgage rate now?
With most forecasters calling the bottom of the rate cycle, locking in current rates — especially for 1–2 year terms — is worth serious consideration. A popular strategy is splitting your loan across multiple terms to balance short-term savings with longer-term certainty. The best choice depends on your financial situation and risk tolerance. Try the RatePal Mortgage Optimiser to model different scenarios.
How does the OCR affect my mortgage rate?
The OCR is the rate the RBNZ sets for overnight lending between banks. When the OCR rises, banks' funding costs increase, and they pass this on through higher mortgage rates. However, the relationship isn't always one-to-one — fixed mortgage rates are also influenced by wholesale swap rates and bank competition. Floating rates tend to track the OCR more closely than fixed rates.
What is the best mortgage rate in NZ right now?
As of April 2026, the most competitive rates across major banks are around 4.49% for 6-month and 1-year fixed terms. BNZ currently offers the lowest 2-year rate at 4.89%. Rates vary by bank, term, and your individual circumstances (LVR, new vs existing customer). Compare all current rates on RatePal to find the best deal for your situation.
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